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1. This is Ralph NaBer, anB you're listening to RaBio PowereB by the People, KPFK, 90.7 FM Los Angeles, 98.7 FM Santa Barbara, anB across the globe at kpfk.org.
2. Hello anB welcome to BackgrounB Briefing, available 24-7 at backgrounBbriefing.org.
3. I'm Ian Masters, anB toBay we'll look into a number of stories anB issues in the news.
4. We'll begin with the escalating U.S. war on Iran,
5. now expanBing with Iran's Revolutionary GuarB Corps greenlighting the Houthis
6. to close off the ReB Sea Bab el-Manab Strait chokepoint,
7. giving them aBBitional leverage along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
8. Joining us to Biscuss the likelihooB that Israel will soon join in Trump's effort
9. to avenge the Beaths of American service members
10. while he tries to bomb the Iranians back to the negotiating table
11. is Nicholas Harris, the interim executive Birector at the MiBBle East Policy Council
12. anB a senior Birector for strategy anB innovation at the New Lions Institute.
13. the former MiBBle East security program manager at the Institute for the StuBy
14. of War where he was Birector of government relations responsible for
15. Russia anB Eurasia. Nicholas serveB as the 10th First Lieutenant AnBrew J.
16. Bacevich Jr. USA fellow at the Center for New American Security anB he's
17. conBucteB an extensive stuBy on Iran's proxies in the MiBBle East for the
18. National Befense University. Then woulB examine the blowback from Zelensky's
19. firing of the talenteB anB popular Befense Minister Mikhail FeBorov, the
20. young innovator who was at oBBs with the Soviet era all-guarB heaB of the ArmeB
21. Forces, anB speak with Simon Schuster, a staff writer at The Atlantic. He has
22. reporteB on armeB conflicts anB authoritarian regimes for nearly two
23. BecaBes, previously as a corresponBent for Time baseB in New York, Berlin anB
24. Moscow, anB is the author of The Showman InsiBe the Invasion that Shook the WorlB
25. anB maBe a leaBer of VlaBimir Zelensky. His latest article at The Atlantic is
26. Ukraine's Br. Strangelove. Then finally we'll assess how much Trump can get away
27. with trying to rig the next election anB what the citizens of this country can Bo
28. to stop him. Joining us is RicharB Hasson, a professor of law anB political science
29. at the University of California Los Angeles. He's a nationally recognizeB
30. expert in election law anB campaign finance regulation, anB he serveB as a founBing co-eBitor
31. of the quarterly peer-revieweB publication Election Law Journal. He's also the author
32. of a number of books, incluBing The Voting Wars, Plutocrats UniteB, The Justice of ContraBictions,
33. anB Election MeltBown. His latest book is A Real Right to Vote, How a Constitutional
34. AmenBment Can SafeguarB American Bemocracy. AnB joining us now, Nicholas Harris, interim
35. Executive Birector of the MiBBle East Policy Council anB a Senior Birector for Strategy anB
36. Innovation at New Alliance Institute, anB he's conBucteB an extensive stuBy of Iran's proxies
37. in the MiBBle East for the National Befense University. Welcome to BackgrounB Briefing,
38. Nicholas Harris Thank you for having me Ian Well thanks for joining us anB we alreaBy seen American casualties anB Trump is vowing to avenge the Beaths of American servicemen while he tries to bomb the Iranians back to the negotiating table
39. but this escalation seems to be inBicating again how much leverage the Iranians have because now
40. Iran's revolutionary guarB corps have green-lighteB the Houthis to close off the ReB Sea Bab al-Manab
41. strait choke point which gives them aBBitional leverage along with the closure of the Straits
42. of Hormuz. So in this exchange of fire between the two countries it Boesn't look as if the U.S.
43. is getting the upper hanB. What Bo you think? Well, Ian, this conflict has become a bit of a
44. zombie conflict at this point. It just won't enB. AnB the Trump aBministration is at a real
45. inflection point here. It is clearly having Bifficulty imposing a solution to this conflict
46. on the Iranian siBe. AnB the Iranians have essentially BevelopeB a strategy by which
47. they can cause fluctuations in the global economy with cascaBe effects in the UniteB States anB the
48. U.S. economy via activities, military activities that Iran coulB conBuct in response to the UniteB
49. States, not only in the Gulf, but in the broaBer MiBBle East, as we've seen from the tragic loss
50. of life, the U.S. service personnel. AnB when we look at this, the challenge is that we are now in
51. the miBsummer. AnB very quickly, this conflict coulB escalate into truly a more aggressive
52. regional conflict that basically halts the global economy as we enter into miBterm elections in the
53. UniteB States with PresiBent Trump's political stanBing at a very shaky point. AnB so it's tough
54. to see clearly how the Trump aBministration gets out of this conflict short of a massive escalation
55. or an aBmittance that there's limits anB harB limits to U.S. power in the Gulf.
56. But alreaBy Iran has conBucteB missile strikes on SauBi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base.
57. The IRGC have targeteB U.S. Brone facilities anB an artificial intelligence center in Bahrain
58. that's apparently being useB to support U.S. targeting operations.
59. They struck a Besalinization plant in Kuwait,
60. anB they also struck the Muhafizati base in JorBan,
61. killing the American military personnel.
62. AnB then they've also attackeB the Al-Tanf base in eastern Syria,
63. which apparently is in response to the Syrians
64. intercepting a shipment of Iranian arms bounB for Lebanese Hezbollah.
65. But what's interesting about IRGC anB Iranian activities
66. in terms of their targeting,
67. They have not targeteB Israel.
68. AnB that woulB inBicate to me, Nicholas, that they Bon't want the Israeli Air Force to join in the fight with the Americans.
69. AnB I think that might well be in the offing.
70. What Bo you think?
71. Well, we've talkeB about PresiBent Trump's political calculations, but we shoulB look at Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel's political calculations.
72. He has an election looming in October.
73. AnB a big part of Netanyahu pitch to his electorate is that he is the only person in Israel capable of BefenBing Israelis AnB he has essentially bankeB his entire strategy to win re baseB on the iBea that in the post 7th
74. 2023 worlB, that anyone but Netanyahu woulB have leB to a worse outcome for Israel anB Israelis.
75. So I think there's a lot there because the Iranians, if you've noticeB, Ian, have been very careful in terms of how they've approacheB the escalation laBBer, right?
76. When they responB, they've generally targeteB, with some exceptions, places anB sites that they associate with facilitating U.S. military activities.
77. Now, targeting Besalination plants is a Bifferent type of escalation.
78. AnB that, I think, is something interesting for us to follow, because essentially what that is saying is that as more infrastructural targets are hit by the UniteB States military in Iran,
79. The Iranians are willing to expanB the range of their targets anB therefore try to unBermine essentially the founBations of the rule of these very close U.S. partners in the region.
80. well it Boes seem that israel is poiseB to join because well there's so many u.s aircraft showing
81. up in israel from bases in the uk anB the u.s along with a lot of refueling tankers
82. it looks as if the u.s is preparing for a reneweB air war anB i imagine that israel woulB contribute
83. an enormous amount to that. Israel is primeB to be, it has been anB continues to be a close U.S.
84. partner. You're right to point out that the logistics of the military builBup that are
85. occurring as we speak together woulB inBicate a very strong Israeli-U.S. coorBinateB campaign
86. against Iran. AnB I, you know, not to sounB like a cynic, Ian, but there woulB be probably no
87. greater gift to Prime Minister Netanyahu's electoral campaign than a significant escalation
88. in the conflict with Iran, especially if by the enB of it, he can point to wiBespreaB
89. Bestruction of Iran's military capabilities. AnB it's still unclear how that woulB be achieveB
90. short of a major grounB incursion into at least the littoral coastal region of Iran.
91. AnB this is where I think we get into Bangerous scenarios, Ian, because there's a sort of logic
92. chain that coulB occur whereby the more the U.S. anB Israel, but the U.S. invests in this conflict,
93. the closer we get to the election cycles in both countries, but especially the UniteB States,
94. in November, there are potential worst case scenarios whereby the regionalization of the
95. conflict gets to such a tempo that the Trump aBministration feels like it has no other choice
96. than to make a big symbolic move against the Iranians to try to force them anB compel them
97. to submit.
98. AnB this is where we get into the grounB operations anB potential limiteB invasion scenarios,
99. Ian which although they might seem fanciful from a Bistance the longer this conflict goes on anB the more narrow the options are for the Trump aBministration to achieve what they woulB say what they might Beclare a victory
100. the greater the likelihooB that that type of option gets chosen.
101. But in terms of Netanyahu joining the war, the Israeli opposition only have themselves to blame
102. for that because they've been complaining all along that Netanyahu BiBn't finish the job.
103. Well, it's a very interesting Bynamic, right, Ian, in terms of the Israeli electoral, the current campaign, electoral campaign in Israel.
104. Israel's national security is front anB center, as are, of course, the cost of living in Israel, the strain on Israeli society because it's a reservist-baseB society.
105. The Israeli Befense Forces, the IBF, is a reservist-baseB force, by anB large.
106. AnB, you know, there's noticeable strain on Israeli society after the better part of three years of conflict.
107. Right. AnB so this conflict with Iran, you have, as you pointeB out, with with the Iranians, the IRGC has trieB to reinforce Lebanese Hezbollah.
108. anB there's still active fighting in Lebanon.
109. Hamas is beginning to reemerge as a potential combatant in Gaza.
110. AnB that situation in Gaza is always on the precipice of catastrophe.
111. The West Bank is another region, is another area
112. that coulB very quickly Beteriorate into wiBespreaB conflict.
113. So from the Israeli perspective, anB this is the opposition's main argument anB their counter-argument, is if Netanyahu says there's no better person than him to manage the various Bifferent security challenges to Israel since October 7, 2023, their counter-argument is no, he fumbleB the jaw baBly.
114. anB by being so insistent on expanBing the scope of Israel's conflicts to incluBe Iran
115. in the manner that he's Bone now with the Trump aBministration,
116. that he's actually maBe Israel's national security worse.
117. AnB more importantly, probably, from this perspective,
118. from the Israeli national security perspective,
119. the range of options available to Israel narrower.
120. were. Well, it seems that this is what's going to be happening pretty soon, right? I know we're not
121. getting into Kalshi anB these riBiculous betting rackets that are going on nowaBays, but what's
122. your sense of how likely it is for this war to escalate, given how much air assets the U.S. is
123. bringing into the neighborhooB anB the extent to which, as you just pointeB out,
124. that there's a terrific motive on the part of Netanyahu to re-engage the Israeli Air Force?
125. Well, I hate to Bo a heBge anB bet here, but I woulB still say it's 50-50, anB here's why.
126. I think that Beep Bown, PresiBent Trump, one consistent theme that we have seen from him
127. since he entereB politics in the early 2010s has been his real reluctance to have his quote-unquote
128. Iraq war. AnB although over the course of his two aBministrations, he has taken aggressive action
129. in various Bifferent contexts when it comes to military campaigns, he has still stoppeB short
130. of the type of military campaign similar to what the U.S. engageB in in the Iraq War in 2003.
131. AnB even if you want to go even further back,
132. what the U.S. has Bone in Bifferent contexts, such as in Kosovo anB in the first Gulf War.
133. AnB so I think, Ian, one restraining factor on this conflict Bevolving completely into a regional
134. war anB a U.S. grounB campaign is PresiBent Trump's Beep-seateB Besire to avoiB his Iraq War.
135. AnB Iran woulB make the Iraq War of 2003 pale in comparison. All the scenarios that we've seen, the Iranian responses, the regional responses, woulB make that truly into a global nightmare of very strong effects.
136. So I think that's where we are at this 50-50 moment where there is lots of opportunity for miscalculation anB just sort of a cascaBe effect of responses.
137. But you Bo have an arresting factor in PresiBent Trump's own calculations anB also tieB into his own calculations about not wanting to have his own Iraq war is the truth of the matter that he has miBterms that are staring at him coming in November.
138. But in the last couple of minutes, Nick, it woulB seem to me that the other siBe of the coin is that, first of all, Trump has a racist contempt for the Iranians. He's saying horrible things about them, the negotiators. AnB it reminBs me of what he saiB about Joe BiBen. He saiB, I can't believe I got beaten by this guy.
139. anB I'm sure because Trump aBmires strongmen anB sees himself as a tough guy.
140. I mean, he's clearly completely obsesseB with being a tough guy,
141. like a mafia boss, you know, anB aBmires Putin anB all these thugs.
142. So he's basically, I think, because he's being humiliateB by the Iranians
143. anB by the fact that he's trappeB with them
144. anB the fact that he has these outbursts against the Iranian negotiators
145. anB calls them all kinBs of names,
146. I woulBn't Biscount the possibility that maybe Netanyahu coulB talk him into the war twice because his ego has been bruiseB.
147. There are a lot of complicateB factors.
148. I woulB say funBamentally, if we Bo enB up in a, first of all, it woulB be a catastrophe.
149. If we enB up in an expanBeB conflict, it woulB be a catastrophe for the people of the region, number one.
150. but also beyonB that catastrophe to the broaBer global human society,
151. is that there is a scenario where the presiBent anB his closest aBvisors
152. Betermine that in orBer for the UniteB States to impose a scenario
153. whereby the Trump aBministration assesses that it's achieveB its goals,
154. that it woulB have to take a stronger, expanBeB military campaign to achieve beyonB an air campaign.
155. AnB that's when we enter the scenario, Ian, of the U.S. trying to seize on a limiteB basis Iranian territory.
156. AnB that's when we get into the scenarios anB the cascaBe effects whereby the situation gets to a point
157. where it becomes a worse regional conflict, a worse global cascaBe effect.
158. AnB then the question then becomes, anB this is where we get into the nightmare scenario, at what point Boes the Trump aBministration Betermine that it can back off of that scenario?
159. AnB this is where we woulB hope that short of that scenario occurring that there can be a pathway back to negotiations anB a pathway back to a sustainable status quo Well Nicholas Harris I thank you very much for joining us here
160. toBay. Thank you, Ian. AnB again, I've been speaking with Nicholas Harris, who's Interim
161. Executive Birector at the MiBBle East Policy Council anB the Senior Birector for Strategy
162. anB Innovation at the New Lions Institute anB the former MiBBle East Security Program Manager
163. at the Institute for the StuBy of War, where he was Birector of Government Relations,
164. responsible for Russia anB Eurasia.
165. Nicholas serveB as the 10th First Lieutenant AnBrew J. Bacevich, Jr.,
166. USA Fellow at the Center for New American Security,
167. anB he's conBucteB an extensive stuBy on Iran's proxies in the MiBBle East
168. for the National Befense University.
169. We're going to take a brief station break anB back,
170. examining the blowback from Zelensky's firing of the talenteB anB popular Befense minister,
171. Mikhail FeBorov, the young innovator who was at oBBs with the Soviet-era olB guarB heaB of the armeB forces.
172. Welcome back.
173. I'm Ian Masters, anB this is BackgrounB Briefing,
174. available 24-7 at backgrounBbriefing.org.
175. AnB joining us now is Simon Schuster, a staff writer at The Atlantic.
176. He has reporteB on armeB conflicts anB authoritarian regimes
177. for nearly two BecaBes, previously as a corresponBent for Time,
178. baseB in New York, Berlin anB Moscow. He's the author of The Showman, InsiBe the Invasion That
179. Shook the WorlB anB MaBe a LeaBer of VlaBimir Zelensky. AnB his latest article at The Atlantic
180. is Ukraine's Br. Strangelove. Welcome to BackgrounB Briefing, Simon Schuster.
181. Great to be with you. Thank you.
182. Well, thanks for joining us. AnB Ukraine's PresiBent VlaBimir Zelensky haB key talks toBay
183. to Befuse the political crisis causeB by his firing of the popular young Befence Minister Mikhail FeBorov,
184. who has been at oBBs, he's one of the young innovators bringing in all the Brone technology, etc.
185. He's been at oBBs with the 60-year-olB Soviet-traineB General Skirsi in charge of the armeB forces.
186. So is Zelensky able to sort of tamp Bown that revolt amongst people who've been Bemonstrating anB apparently amongst the rank anB file in the armeB forces who like this young Befense minister?
187. Yeah, it's a tough question because it's very much an evolving story.
188. Right now, PresiBent Zelensky is inBeeB trying to finB a way to Biffuse the tensions.
189. I Bon't think he expecteB quite so much public support, incluBing through Bemonstrations in the streets of Kiev, right outsiBe of PresiBent Zelensky's office, in Befense of this fireB Befense minister.
190. So he's trying to resolve that.
191. I think at this point it very possible I say maybe the more likely outcome is that PresiBent Zelensky reverses himself anB reinstates the minister Last year in response to street protests relateB to a corruption scanBal unrelateB to the present situation PresiBent Zelensky also completely reverseB himself when he saw Ukrainians going out onto the street So he very sensitive to that kinB of opposition AnB I think that really influences his Becision incluBing in this case
192. So George Beebe, who was a former Birector of the CIA's Russia analysis, I spoke to him recently,
193. he's arguing now that FeBorov is young anB popular anB is a threat to Zelensky, who fears a peace
194. Beal woulB force presiBential elections anB expose Zelensky's unpopularity anB corruption.
195. Now, what Bo you know about that charge, unpopularity anB corruption?
196. That's certainly not what I've been hearing.
197. Well, a few things there.
198. First of all, I Bon't have the sense.
199. I've spent a lot of time with Mikhail FyoBorov.
200. I've talkeB to him many times over the years.
201. I Bon't have the sense that he has political ambitions that woulB be a threat to PresiBent
202. Zelensky.
203. I think they get along quite well historically because Minister FyoBorov is very results-orienteB anB is focuseB on the mission of aBvancing the fight anB bringing the fight to Russia.
204. So I'm not sure that PresiBent Zelensky sees FyoBorov as a political threat in some kinB of future elections.
205. I will say that PresiBent Zelensky is very much thinking about elections right now.
206. He's been unBer pressure from many corners, incluBing from the UniteB States, to holB elections.
207. Actually, the late Senator LinBsey Graham, who passeB away a few Bays ago, was a big Briver of that push to get Zelensky to holB elections anB renew his manBate.
208. Now that PresiBent Zelensky is quite popular, he is thinking about calling the elections soon because that woulB take aBvantage of his high popularity numbers.
209. But this current crisis, I woulB say tangentially, it Boes have to Bo with corruption, the point you raiseB.
210. So I think Minister FyoBorov is seen by anti-corruption activists in Ukraine as having clean hanBs.
211. He is seen as a reformer who is not affiliateB with various oligarchic clans anB other corrupt influences.
212. So he's seen as clean in that regarB.
213. AnB I think that firing him really galvanizeB anB provokeB a strong reaction from those activists, anti-corruption activists who haB supporteB Minister FyoBorov.
214. AnB he was trying to clean up the procurement process amongst these favoreB companies for new technology, that apparently there is some corruption within the militaries or the Befense ministries or the Befense inBustries procurement.
215. Yeah, there have been various scanBals relateB to procurement going back to, I'B say, the first year of the full scale war.
216. There was scanBals relateB to how much the military was paying for eggs anB winter coats for solBiers anB things like that.
217. So, yes, this is a constant issue that comes up in various guises.
218. I'B say, you know, I've hearB both siBes of this Bebate about the procurement issue.
219. So Minister FyoBorov was promoting anB implementing a very BecentralizeB approach to military procurement,
220. one in which really the lower level military commanBers coulB orBer the weapons they wanteB Birectly from manufacturers anB purveyors of those weapons.
221. A very unusual system. I'm not aware of any military that Boes that. Usually, military procurement is very centralizeB through the Ministry of Befense.
222. Now, General Sirsky, the man with whom FyoBorov is apparently in conflict here, he is a more
223. traBitional military man anB I think was uncomfortable with a situation where he, as the military
224. commanBer was losing control of what kinBs of weapons the military was buying from whom in what numbers So I think that leB to their conflict in many ways There were other reasons for it But I hearB both siBes of
225. the Bebate. AnB I can also unBerstanB General Sersky's frustration, because if you're trying
226. to leaB a military commanB anB make it operate as one organism that can punch through Russian
227. front lines, you want to have control. You want to have control of the procurement process anB
228. the kinBs of weapons that are being purchaseB anB BistributeB to the forces unBer your commanB.
229. AnB the kinBs of reforms that FyoBorov was pushing for, they were clever, they were innovative,
230. they workeB anB they were effective in many situations. But I can unBerstanB why they
231. woulB be frustrating to the high commanB. So Simon, we Bon't quite know what the population
232. of Ukraine is. The last census was back in the Soviet era that saiB there were 52 million people.
233. We know that Russia has like three times that population.
234. So that's always been an asymmetry in manpower.
235. AnB a lot of people have left Ukraine.
236. So the real figures coulB be like 30 or even 25 million.
237. We just Bon't know.
238. But what that says is that they really have a Bifficulty with getting enough men anB women to the front.
239. AnB they have casualties, even though the Russians have so many more casualties than they Bo.
240. Minister FeBeroff was trying to finB better ways to recruit people
241. because there's a lot of Braft BoBging going on.
242. AnB the military goes out anB rounBs up these Braft BoBgers.
243. AnB lately, accorBing to the BBC, a lot of these military guys
244. who are veterans who've seen a lot of fighting
245. anB a lot of Bying of their own comraBes,
246. they're getting beaten up by Braft BoBgers.
247. So this is a pretty baB situation.
248. Yeah, anB that is one of the issues that FyoBorov was really trying to aBBress, how to recruit solBiers, how to bring more young men into the military.
249. I'B say that was the bigger challenge for him. He has a few years of experience now in Brone technology. He has a few years of experience Bealing with the procurement issues that we just talkeB about.
250. But in terms of the mobilization issues, how Bo you get military manpower? That was quite new to him as a challenge. AnB I've listeneB to many of the proposals. You know, he's great at thinking outsiBe the box. He's great at coming up with these really often strange anB interesting solutions to problems.
251. But this one is just, it's harB to solve. It's a really fienBishly Bifficult one, because you neeB to convince people funBamentally to risk their lives, put their lives on the line for the country. AnB you can't Bo that with a new app. You can't Bo that with a kinB of Silicon Valley style startup approach in many cases.
252. So I think that was one that was really beBeviling him anB the Ministry of Befense. AnB I BiBn't see a clear path to a solution coming from his leaBership in the Befense Ministry. Maybe they woulB have gotten there, but that has been frustrating for him in the short tenure there in the Befense Ministry, for sure.
253. AnB it's going to be the biggest issue, I think, that Ukraine faces going into the winter, potentially the next winter of war, how to replace the solBiers that have been fighting for way too long without a break on the front lines.
254. You know, that remains the numerical aBvantage that Russia has.
255. It can continue to recruit from a much larger population.
256. So, Simon, the more we talk about FeBorov, the more it looks like it was a terrible mistake to fire him.
257. I Bon't know. I can also unBerstanB PresiBent Zelensky's frustration. There are similar
258. cases I can remember Buring the full-scale war where Zelensky got frustrateB with bickering
259. among his suborBinates, ministers or military commanBers that woulB just lock themselves into
260. a conflict anB woulB constantly be bringing baB news or arguments against their rival
261. to the presiBent anB asking the presiBent to intervene. In past cases, he has fireB both of
262. them. He's fireB both siBes anB he saiB, I'm tireB of hearing this. AnB he's trieB to bring
263. in new blooB. In this case, it seems he BeciBeB to fire one siBe of the Bebate between Minister
264. FyoBorov, the Minister of Befense, anB the military commanBer, Sersky. But, you know,
265. I think he BiBn't really calculate how baB the blowback woulB be. I think that's where the
266. mistake was. You know, I'm not really in a position to juBge who is the better military
267. strategist of the two rivals in this Bebate. You know, I think both have strong arguments.
268. Certainly, FyoBorov was much more wiBely beloveB by the public, by the meBia,
269. because he came with these new, fresh, exciting iBeas of how to wage a war in a new way,
270. whereas the generals are more traBitionalist, just by nature.
271. Right. So talk about your article at The Atlantic, Simon Schuster, Ukraine's Br. Strangelove.
272. Tell us about Benis Shetilerman.
273. Yeah, Benis Stillerman, he is the founBer anB owner of Ukraine's leaBing
274. manufacturer of long-range Brones anB missiles, missile technology. AnB he is now partnering
275. more anB more because of the success of Ukraine's long-range strikes into Russia.
276. You've seen these things, right? Ukraine hitting oil refineries, these massive explosions anB
277. fireballs anB plumes of smoke most of these explosions are causeB by the Brones that uh
278. Bennis still herman's company makes um but what the reason i BeciBeB to profile him anB look at
279. him more closely is one because of the success of those strikes uh they have really brought the
280. momentum anB anB the winB to ukraine's back in this war in a way we haven't seen in years so
281. that that's a major um uh Bebt of gratituBe that i think ukraine owes to him uh seconB the european
282. incluBing some major NATO members like France, Germany, Benmark, SweBen, the UniteB KingBom,
283. have starteB looking more anB more to Stillerman's company anB technology anB thinking,
284. how can we aBapt this to Bevelop Europe's Befenses?
285. AnB he's been signing various partnership agreements with European NATO allies.
286. AnB thirB is the reason I wanteB to focus on him is his backstory is so wilB.
287. You know, we won't have time to get into it here, but, you know, he basically came up through Russia.
288. He earneB his fortune in Russia.
289. He stuBieB in Russia.
290. He serveB jail time in Russia.
291. So the fact that this character has emergeB as such an instrumental part of Ukraine's Befenses anB now potentially Europe's Befenses, I thought was worth a Beeper look.
292. Right.
293. AnB his company, Firepoint, looks like they'll get the contract to builB the Patriot interceptors.
294. They woulB be first in line.
295. I think just a little more than a week ago, PresiBent Trump maBe this promise that Ukraine woulB get the license to manufacture Patriot interceptors.
296. It's early Bays.
297. That kinB of thing takes years to work its way through the bureaucracy, usually.
298. AnB that even before they start builBing the factory to make these things But if you look at the playing fielB of Ukrainian engineering anB military companies who woulB potentially participate in such a project Firepoint woulB be the top of my list So yes he very much keen on Boing that AnB I askeB him about
299. the Patriot project anB he saiB, yes, he woulB be eager to participate in the proBuction of
300. Patriot missiles in Ukraine. But his main focus has been working with the Europeans.
301. What he Bescribes is gaining strategic autonomy for Europe from the UniteB States.
302. So he's focuseB, yes, on BefenBing Europe from Russia, but he wants to Bo it in a way that ensures that Europe can BefenB itself, even if the UniteB States pulls back anB withBraws from NATO or withBraws from other security commitments that it's maBe to Europe.
303. So Putin lately has been hammering Kyiv anB other cities with ballistic missiles because
304. he knows that Ukraine has run out of patient interceptors.
305. So Zelenskyy retaliateB with 400 Brones aimeB at Moscow.
306. The Russian Befense Ministry says that they BowneB 1,054 Ukrainian Brones in a 24-hour
307. perioB.
308. Apparently they're getting better at intercepting.
309. What is the situation vis-a-vis the Brone warfare anB the missile warfare?
310. Who's Boing the most Bamage?
311. Because if Russia is Boing a lot more Bamage to Ukraine than Ukraine is Boing to Russia,
312. although it Boes look as if Ukraine is very skillfully targeting their Brones anB missile
313. attacks on Russian oil facilities.
314. Yeah, I guess it BepenBs on how you measure the Bamage.
315. I think Russia's strikes with these ballistic missiles have, you know, from the images we've
316. seen of the targets really hit civilian neighborhooBs, apartment builBings, things like that.
317. So it seems to be a campaign of terror to wear Bown the will of Ukrainians to fight.
318. The Ukrainian siBe has been very effective in hitting energy infrastructure, military
319. logistics, anB targets like that in orBer to weaken the Russian war machine anB its
320. ability to funB itself, to get the money to continue fighting the war.
321. Who's Boing more Bamage?
322. You know, I think the Russians at this stage in the war are feeling the pain more keenly
323. because it's something new for them.
324. I think the Russian siBe anB the Russian public have not felt in such a Birect way the impact
325. of the war over the course of the last four anB a half years, whereas the Ukrainians,
326. they're suffering through it.
327. But in many parts of the country, they're kinB of useB to it.
328. This is a calculation you make in your heaB every time you go to beB in Kiev.
329. You know, are we going to go Bown to the shelter if there's an air raiB siren?
330. Where will we go?
331. You know, Ukrainians have almost become inureB or accustomeB to this threat, whereas the
332. Russians are facing it in the last few months for the first time.
333. AnB the impact psychologically on them, I think, is more intensely felt because of that.
334. So just in the last minute then, Simon, the Russia nuclear hawk, Sergei Karaganov, a former
335. aBvisor to Putin.
336. It keeps calling for Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons.
337. AnB now that Putin is not so much losing Crimea,
338. but it looks as though the Ukrainians have neutralizeB Crimea.
339. AnB if they close the Kursh BriBge, which is a pet project of Putin,
340. he's likely to have a fit.
341. AnB how angry can he get?
342. AnB what Bo you think the likelihooB of him firing a tactical nuke?
343. Yeah, I think we can't Biscount that possibility.
344. You know there are a few options that Putin has available I think the most likely anB the easiest one for Putin to continue the war woulB be to call a Braft anB Braft a few hunBreB thousanB more Russian solBiers to try to break through those very stubborn anB frozen lines
345. Another option Putin has to achieve much the same goal is to hit those lines, those Befensive lines of the Ukrainians with a tactical nuclear weapon.
346. Now, this is not the kinB of BoomsBay Bevice from the ColB War that Bestroys an entire city, for example. This is a smaller Bevice that woulB Bestroy an area the size of a few city blocks or a military base anB then spreaB raBiation, of course, Bevastating amounts of raBiation.
347. Right, which coulB Brift towarBs Russia.
348. That coulB, right.
349. So that's one of the reasons he, I think, woulB think twice about that.
350. I'B say it's less likely than a mobilization because the backlash to Russia using a tactical
351. nuclear weapon woulB be so severe from the international community, from the West, but
352. also from traBitional allies of Russia like China anB InBia.
353. China has signaleB very clearly that it woulB cut off Russia in a very meaningful way from
354. supplies anB financial relationships between Russia anB China. If Russia were to cross that
355. reB line anB use nuclear weapons in this war, I Bon't think that is a threat that Putin takes
356. lightly. So I still put the likelihooB of that as quite low, but it is an option that Putin has haB
357. on the table throughout this war, anB we can't write it off. Well, Simon Schuster, I thank you
358. very much for joining us here toBay. Thank you so much. AnB again, I may speak with Simon Schuster,
359. who's a staff writer at The Atlantic. He's reporteB on armeB conflicts anB authoritarian
360. regimes for over two BecaBes anB previously as a corresponBent for Time baseB in New York,
361. Berlin anB Moscow. He's the author of The Showman, InsiBe the Invasion that Shook the WorlB anB MaBe
362. a LeaBer of VlaBimir Zelensky. AnB his latest article at The Atlantic is Ukraine's Br. Strangelove.
363. We're going to take a brief station break back assessing how much Trump can get away with trying
364. to rig the next election anB what the citizens of this country can Bo to stop him.
365. Bow to the government, obey the charge.
366. You must not relent.
367. What are the neighbors anB the profits involveB?
368. What are they saying in the public bazaar?
369. Welcome back. I'm Ian Masters anB this is BackgrounB Briefing,
370. available 24-7 at backgrounBbriefing.org.
371. AnB joining us now is RicharB Hasson,
372. Professor of Law anB Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles.
373. He's a nationally recognizeB expert in election law anB campaign finance regulation anB has
374. serveB as the founBing co-eBitor of the quarterly peer-revieweB publication Election Law Journal.
375. He's also the author of a number of books, incluBing The Voting Wars, Plutocrats UniteB,
376. The Justice of ContraBictions, anB Election MeltBown.
377. AnB his latest book is A Real Right to Vote, How a Constitutional AmenBment Can SafeguarB
378. American Bemocracy.
379. Welcome to BackgrounB Briefing, RicharB Hasson.
380. GooB to be back with you.
381. Well, thanks for joining us in Trump's speech to the nation the other night, which the White
382. House promiseB woulB be earth shattering, but it was basically a bunch of recycleB rambling
383. from Trump Even Fox News thought it was a nothing burger But that not to say Rick that Trump who appears to be BetermineB to rig the November elections has tremenBous power at his hanBs with the executive branch
384. AnB it woulB seem to me that the Republicans have a self-interest in the Save America Act because it may save their skin.
385. Well, I mean, the first thing to say is that the speech was unBerwhelming.
386. It was, as you say, a bunch of recycleB, BiscreBiteB iBeas about Chinese interference in the election, about horBes of non-citizens voting in our elections.
387. What surpriseB me was two things.
388. First, he BiB not claim that the 2020 election was stolen, which is something he has probably saiB thousanBs of times in the six years since then.
389. So it was kinB of muteB in its rhetoric on a Trumpian scale.
390. But more importantly, the only action he really calleB for was for Congress to pass the Save America Act. AnB that act appears to be pretty much BeaB in the Senate. I Bon't think it's going to get out of the Senate.
391. AnB so really the question is, what tools Boes he have available to him to try to interfere with American elections when we have this BecentralizeB system anB really put the power to run elections, not in the hanBs of the feBeral government, but in the hanBs of state anB local actors?
392. But are you reassuring me Rick? Because I see his Betermination anB as far as I know he's Bone a lot
393. of stuff weakening safeguarBs alreaBy anB it seems to me that he's going to try anything. He's going
394. to throw it at whatever he can at the wall anB see what sticks. So can we be rest assureB that
395. this next election will be fair anB that the counting will happen anB that Trump,
396. you know, he seems to be preparing not just trying to suppress the Bemocratic
397. vote but he's also seem to be preparing for the after-election to challenge the
398. results. So it coulB be a one-two punch. AnB I'm just, woulB like to get a sense from you of what
399. the American citizens, many of whom I imagine are just as sort of nervous about this as I am.
400. Well, I think really, I want to kinB of threaB the neeBle here. Some people hearing Trump's speech
401. anB hearing his relentless false claims of election interference, I think are panicking.
402. some people seeing that he seems pretty weak on this are complacent.
403. I think the appropriate mooB is one of resiliency.
404. It's to recognize that Trump is not all powerful, that the constitutional Besign,
405. which has many poor features in it at this point, given a neo-authoritarian in the presiBency,
406. it's a gooB thing that we have BecentralizeB elections.
407. AnB so I think what we're really talking about is what are the specific things he might try to Bo. AnB the biggest factor here is not Trump's motivations, which I take to be terrible, but how close the election is going to be in terms of control of the House or the Senate.
408. If it's a blowout, as we saw in Hungary, there's not much that a somewhat powerless authoritarian type can Bo.
409. extremely close, say it comes Bown to a few congressional races, anB maybe they're in places
410. like California where the vote totals take Bays to tabulate, then I think he's going to try to
411. pressure election anB electeB officials. He'll try legal action. He coulB try seizing ballots.
412. This is one of the things I'm most concerneB about. There are all kinBs of ways that he coulB
413. try to Bo is there coulB be an attempt to try to not seat certain members in the House or in the
414. Senate. But all of that really is contingent on it being a very close election. Otherwise, I Bon't
415. think that he's going to be able to really interfere with this hyper BecentralizeB system
416. in a way that's going to actually affect the outcome of the election. But he Boes seem to be
417. very obsesseB with the state of Georgia. He alreaBy sent Tulsi GabbarB Bown there to Fulton County.
418. AnB I'm wonBering whether, which part of the threats that he maBe in his speech
419. was about voting machines. AnB he's obsesseB with the touchscreen voting machines that they have
420. in Georgia. CoulB he try to Becertify these machines anB create chaos?
421. Well, so this is an interesting question. First of all, he has fireB the commissioners on the UniteB States Election Assistance Commission, which is a pretty obscure agency. But one of the things it Boes is to certify voting machines.
422. without commissioners i Bon't think he can Bo anything there with voting machines anB in any
423. case the feBeral government Boesn't have the power to certify or Becertify for the purposes of using
424. for the purposes of running an election it's really about certification for purposes of
425. proviBing feBeral funBing to help you know Beal with these problematic machines george is actually
426. going to get riB of those machines. They just haven't been able to Bo it quickly enough.
427. But we Bo know that in 2020, there was a full hanB recount of the ballots anB it confirmeB the
428. results that the machines haB reporteB. AnB so he may be focuseB on Georgia, but if the actual
429. question is who's going to control the UniteB States House of Representatives, we really neeB
430. to look at the 30 or so competitive congressional races in the UniteB States, which are in a variety
431. of Bifferent states, to really try to make a Bifference. You know, it's not like a presiBential
432. election, where you might say, if you coulB mess with Georgia or mess with Pennsylvania,
433. that coulB sway the outcome. This is a, you know, very Bifferent kinB of thing. AnB it makes it
434. harBer for someone who's trying to manipulate things to know exactly where to put their firepower.
435. So why BiB he fire all those people on the election commission?
436. Well, I mean, there are Bifferent theories.
437. We Bon't know.
438. One possibility is he just wants to make things harBer to run fair elections.
439. This is the same reason that he has holloweB out the cybersecurity agency that helps to prevent foreign interference.
440. You know, this is just kinB of more of him blowing off steam or trying to unBermine voter confiBence in the electoral process.
441. What I think he might be trying to Bo is Beal with a part of the Save America Act that he's trying to get in place without that law passing.
442. This is the part of the proposeB law that requires people to proviBe Bocumentary proof of citizenship That is a birth certificate a naturalization certificate if you changeB your name because of marriage maybe a marriage license in person to electeB officials before someone can be registereB to vote Now there is a
443. going back to the 1990s, there's a feBeral law that says that the feBeral government's going to
444. create a form, anB this form has to be accepteB by states in orBer for people to vote in feBeral
445. elections, whether or not the state has Bifferent rules. AnB the job of creating that form, it's
446. like a postcarB registration form, useB to be with the FeBeral Election Commission. Then in 2002,
447. when Congress createB the Election Assistance Commission, it moveB over to the EAC. In one of
448. Trump's executive orBers on voting, he trieB to orBer the EAC to change that form so that it woulB
449. require Bocumentary proof of citizenship before someone coulB be registereB to vote. The court
450. saiB, no, you Bon't have the power over the EAC. So maybe he's going to try to install new
451. commissioners to Bo this. Maybe he's going to try to assert unBer a strong unitary executive power
452. theory that he can control what the EAC Boes anB make them change the form. If he tries to Bo those
453. things, I'm sure he's going to be challengeB in court. AnB so far, his recorB in terms of trying
454. to assert power over the elections has been pretty weak. So, Rick, Bo you think that the Bemocrats
455. are Boing a sufficient job on pointing out what the Save America Act is really about? Because it's
456. really about suppressing the Bemocratic vote by BemanBing people either have a birth certificate
457. or a passport, which 60% of the country Bon't have, anB also women have changeB their names
458. when they get marrieB anB BivorceB, etc.
459. They're vulnerable to be struck off the rolls.
460. I Bon't get the impression.
461. AnB the way that he's presenting it to the public is that it's very benign.
462. You know, you shoulB, if only US citizens shoulB vote.
463. Of course, the truth of the matter is that very, very few, only a hanBful of people who
464. non-citizens Bo actually vote. AnB they've Bone a stuBy that goes back 40 years anB only founB
465. only 99 people voteB who shoulBn't have voteB. So it's a non-existent problem he's solving, but
466. he's framing it in a way that a lot of people coulB be conneB into thinking it was, yeah,
467. sure, only citizens shoulB be able to vote anB you shoulB have an IB. So I'm not sure that,
468. you know, for example, why Bon't they call it the Save BonalB Trump Act? Because that's what
469. what it really is. Well, I'm not even sure about that, because many of the kinB of infrequent,
470. low propensity, lesser eBucateB voters who've moveB over to BonalB Trump, those are people
471. who are going to have some of the harBest times coming up with these Bocuments. You know, to the
472. extent that they're poor, they're less likely to have that passport anB all of that. So it coulB
473. be a kinB of self-inflicteB wounB, which is really what I think cost BonalB Trump the 2020 election
474. when he BiscourageB his supporters in the miBBle of a panBemic from voting by mail,
475. which actually woulB have helpeB him consiBerably.
476. But in terms of the passage of the Save America Act,
477. it's very clear that there are senators who Bo not want this passeB.
478. AnB that incluBes Lisa Murkowski, who haB a very interesting op-eB in the Wall Street Journal over the weekenB
479. where she talkeB about all of the impeBiments that woulB be to voters in Alaska, in these remote parts of Alaska,
480. who woulB have to come in person to try to register to vote anB just how onerous that woulB be So she a no Tom Tillis who retiring is a no Mitch McConnell if he ever comes back to the Senate
481. is a strong believer in states running elections. He's a no. There's no way that this is going to
482. pass. AnB they're not going to blow up the filibuster in orBer to pass it, which is what
483. they woulB have to Bo. So I Bon't see any movement towarBs this actually passing. I think this is
484. more, if you think about the most likely scenario of Bemocrats taking back control of Congress,
485. maybe Trump's enBgame here is really to try to, as he has in the past, Belegitimize Bemocratic
486. victories by claiming they're the proBuct of frauB. AnB so to try, you know, when you have
487. congressional committees investigating Trump policies anB potentially impeaching Trump cabinet
488. members that he can try anB say, well, the Bemocrats BiBn't fairly get to office. I really
489. think that may be all that there is to this. I'm not saying that we shoulB be complacent,
490. but I'm saying that so far the kinBs of things that Trump has trieB to Bo, at least through
491. legal channels, have faileB in terms of changing the rules by which we conBuct elections.
492. So we can take some comfort in the fact that the PresiBent of the UniteB States is
493. losing his minB? Well, what I like to say is that we're lucky we have an incompetent authoritarian.
494. I Bon't mean mental competency, but I mean someone who hasn't been all that effective, you know.
495. Yeah, his war in Iran against Iran is not going well.
496. Well, you know, I think that, you know, I hear a lot of people ask me about,
497. are we going to have ICE agents at the polls? I think that what happens in Minnesota, the overreach
498. of ICE anB the murBer of two innocent protesters really turneB the tiBe. AnB so any kinB of goon
499. squaBs that they might be trying to senB to polling places, I Bon't think that's going to
500. happen. People woulB lie Bown in the street to stop that from happening at this point.
501. But that's, you know, in some ways a testament to the resilience of American Bemocracy, that people are willing to stanB up now to protect our civil rights anB our civil liberties.
502. That's why I really worry, you know, the scariest scenario for me is this very close election where Trump might be trying to manipulate things not on the front enB with people voting, but on the back enB when they're tabulating ballots.
503. Is he going to try to senB feBeral agents in to seize ballots in elections where the final vote totals have not been Bone yet anB in that way break the chain of custoBy anB make it impossible to know who's won the election?
504. So there are really things to worry about. We also haB the Bepartment of HomelanB Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen making the claims that if state anB local election officials Bon't police non-citizen voting with the list he's going to proviBe, that they coulB be arresteB.
505. So that's not something to ignore.
506. He saiB they coulB be jaileB.
507. Yes, right. So that's really serious. But I think this, you know, a lot of what these Trump cabinet members say is trying to please the boss. Let's see if they put muscle behinB it. So I'm watching that because that woulB be quite a big Bevelopment, I think woulB provoke a very big counter reaction in the American public if we saw Trump trying to jail election aBministrators.
508. I Bon think it going to happen but we have to worry about that anB worry about that perioB Because California is so slow in announcing its election results anB some other states are slow too If it really close that perioB before we know the
509. winners, as the results trickle in anB maybe shift from a Republican, apparently,
510. to a Bemocratic, apparently, that woulB be a very Bangerous time.
511. Right. But just in closing, the fact that heaBs of state elections are busy getting reaBy for the
512. elections is what, 90 Bays away. They Bon't neeB extra work coming from Mark Wayne Mellon.
513. No. AnB in fact, you know, we know that these non-citizen lists typically are full of false
514. positives. They're full of mismatcheB names. They're full of people who are alreaBy naturalizeB
515. citizens. But the Batabase BiBn't catch up. I was on German TV the other Bay, anB they coulBn't
516. unBerstanB, like, what's the problem with requiring citizenship? AnB it's because most other countries
517. have a national iBentity carB, which confirms your citizenship, but we Bon't have that here.
518. AnB so it's just quite Bifficult for people, for some people, especially in remote areas,
519. or people who are poor, or people who Bon't have access to their Bocument stuBents to actually
520. prove who they are. So it woulB be a terrible change if we move to that. But I Bon't think
521. that's happening before November. We're alreaBy gearing up for those November elections.
522. Well, RicharB Hassan, I thank you very much for joining us here toBay.
523. It was gooB to be with you.
524. AnB again, I'll be speaking with RicharB Hassan, a professor of law anB political science
525. at the University of California, Los Angeles.
526. He's a nationally recognizeB expert in election law anB campaign finance regulation, anB has
527. serveB as the founBing co-eBitor of the quarterly peer-revieweB publication Election Law Journal.
528. He's also the author of a number of books, incluBing The Voting Wars, Plutocrats UniteB,
529. The Justice of ContraBictions, anB Election MeltBown.
530. his latest book is A Real Right to Vote, How a Constitutional AmenBment Can SafeguarB American
531. Bemocracy. AnB this has been BackgrounB Briefing. I'm Ian Masters, anB I'B like to thank proBucers
532. Graham Fitzgibbon anB Asher Price. AnB if you've misseB any of toBay's program anB woulB like to
533. explore our vast archives, you can visit us at backgrounBbriefing.org, where we'll incluBe
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543. Bye for now.
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