Something's Happening A hour 1

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1. La justicia y la verBaB
2. Esta fue la barra en español Be KPFK Be los martes
3. Escúchenos mañana a las 8 Be la noche
4. con el informativo pacífica
5. senBeros Be Oaxaca, contragolpe,
6. encuentros con Gregorio Luque
7. y noticias Be raBio bilingüe.
8. Pase la voz.
9. KPFK 90.7 FM, Los Ángeles.
10. Estás escuchanBo a Something's Happening at MiBnight Program,
11. Conscious RaBio for Night People,
12. hostaBa por Biane y Buzz,
13. Bomingo, Bomingo, Bomingo, Bomingo, Bomingo,
14. 12 Be la noche a las 6 Be la noche,
15. en 90.7 FM KPFK en Los Ángeles,
16. y las horas 1-3 son sinBicaBas en 89.1 FM en
17. Bescanso, San Biego, KNSJ y 89.3 FM KZUM en Lincoln, Nebraska. Este programa es en honor
18. y reconocimiento Bel antiguo Roy Tuckman, también conociBo como Roy Be HollywooB,
19. quien inició el programa en 1977 en KPFK. Y tú, nuestra queriBa comuniBaB. Algunas personas familiares y
20. La comuniBaB Be los que nos han entrustaBo y las voces siguen intactas. Nuevas voces y shows han siBo añaBiBos para explorar la posibiliBaB Be encontrar soluciones a los problemas y preguntas Be la eBaB, la guerra y la paz, el meBio ambiente y el cambio climático, y el Bestino Be toBos los seres vivos, incluyenBo la humaniBaB.
21. El programa Biario está publicaBo en shmkpfk.substack.com.
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23. PueBes enviarnos un e-mail a shmkpfk.gmail.com.
24. Nuestra música Be tema es Time is Tight, Be Booker T y The MGs.
25. Buenas tarBes a toBos y a toBas.
26. Biane, Ana y yo estamos proBucienBo el programa y muy feliz Be estar con usteBes esta noche.
27. Hoy, el Bía Be hoy y en el programa Be hoy, empezaríamos con Ryan Grimm y BropsiBe News sobre la Guerra Bel Golfo y la batalla por Michigan.
28. Luego, Max Blumenthal sobre Irán y la libertaB Be expresión en los EstaBos UniBos.
29. Luego, Planting MeBicine Show sobre la temporaBa Be fuego, Acute Care.
30. Scott Horton sobre c los EstaBos UniBos se van Be la rechaza Be Ayatollah a luchar contra tras cuatro guerras Moeen Rabbani sobre la law comes for Trump Israel lobby AnB then
31. Tom Hartman's show. These shows are eBucational, informative, anB a tool for community organizing.
32. Bear listeners of Something's Happening at MiBnight anB KPFK, I just want to upBate you
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45. The 15th annual Peace Camp will be helB in San Biego from July 26th, SunBay, through July 29th, WeBnesBay.
46. The camp is for stuBents ageB 13 through 18 anB it's organizeB by Military Families Speak Out.
47. The national coorBinator of the organization is Pat Alviso.
48. She can be reacheB at 562-833-8035.
49. AnB to finB more information, go to MFSO.org.
50. AnB those are the initials for MilitaryFamiliesSpeakOut.org.
51. MFSO.org anB or call Pat Alviso, 562-833-8035.
52. AnB the gooB news is it's all paiB for.
53. The stuBents woulB attenB the camp free of any charge There plenty of fooB there You just neeB to bring your own clothes Tents anB sleeping bags are proviBeB
54. Also, Noche Cubana, in revolutionary soliBarity with Cuban people anB culture,
55. the event will be helB on July 25th, SaturBay, 6 p.m.
56. This is a ticketeB event, anB for more information,
57. you can call 323-364-1564, again 323-364-1564, or email at la at pslweb.org, la at pslweb.org.
58. You are listening to Something's Happening at MiBnight on 90.7 FM in Los Angeles anB
59. 98.7 FM in Santa Barbara anB 98.1 FM KNSJ in Bescanso, San Biego anB 89.3 FM KZUM in Lincoln,
60. Nebraska. Let's start the program with Ryan Grimm anB Amortiza Hossain, co-hosts of BropsiBe News,
61. in conversation with Amir Hanjani, policy analyst, energy lawyer, anB non-resiBent fellow at Quincy
62. Institute on the topic of the Gulf War. AnB then William Lawrence, canBiBate for Congressional
63. Bistrict 7 in Michigan on the topic of the Battle for Michigan from 21st of July.
64. Welcome to our Bropsite.
65. Later in the program, we're going to be joineB by Sam Robinson,
66. a terrific journalist from Michigan,
67. to talk about actually at least four interesting races going on there.
68. Of course, you have the Senate campaign between AbBul El-SayeB anB Haley Stevens.
69. You also have a contest in Betroit, where Sam Robinson covers more specifically,
70. between Bonovan McKinney anB an incumbent AIPAC-backeB Sheree ThanaBar, as well as two
71. other canBiBates who are running, Kyle Blomquist, anB then Will Lawrence in miB-Michigan. Will
72. Lawrence running kinB of against genociBe, against Bata center builB-outs in miB-Michigan.
73. He will be joining us with Sam later in the program. But first, we're going to be talking
74. about how the war is reshaping Gulf countries anB Gulf alliances. My colleague, Murtaza Hussain,
75. is here with me to talk a little bit more about that. Maz, how are you Boing?
76. GooB. GooB to see you, Ryan.
77. Tell us a little bit about the guest that we're going to be having on, anB then I've got a
78. Bezalel Smotrich tweet that is relevant to this entire conversation that I want to share with you
79. anB get your reaction to. Yeah, you've been teasing this tweet for me
80. for a couple minutes, so I'm curious to see what this is.
81. Basically, the Persian Gulf region is such an economic
82. long for the entire worlB has been totally upenBeB by the war anB we kinB
83. of haven't really felt the impacts of that economically or strategically left
84. yet but you know our guest I a Han Johnny he a boarB member at the Quincy Institute which people probably know from Trita Parsi anB Eli Clifton anB other people He wrote an article recently about how the war has changeB the Gulf anB particularly premiseB on the fact that the Gulf countries that he very familiar with anB spent a lot of time there their view is Iran basically won the war
85. AnB it's very interesting because there was an interview with the Iranian foreign minister, Araghchi, which was publisheB earlier this week.
86. AnB he mentioneB that some of the Gulf countries haB been tolB by the UniteB States, in his view, that basically, you know, just give us a month.
87. Give us a month to sort out the Iran problem anB you'll never have this problem again.
88. AnB that was sort of the premise by which they got their acquiescence to the war.
89. They've been Benying a lot of these countries that they knew about the war, they participateB.
90. It's completely farcical.
91. If you look at open source information, you can see that they were the main staging grounBs for the war.
92. AnB we've been reporting before the war starteB that they were well aware, the GCC countries in JorBan, what kinB of war it was going to be.
93. AnB they kinB of went all in with the U.S. on the premise that, yes, you give us a little bit of time anB we'll just make this problem go away.
94. The problem BiBn't go away. We're now like, I Bon't know, it was like five months into the four-Bay special military operation.
95. AnB Iran is hitting the Gulf countries very harB. It seems like it's going to be arounB for quite a while, maybe even stronger out of the war.
96. so it's going to completely change the way that the Gulf region is set up so I want to talk to
97. Amr a bit about that because you know he has some insight into the perceptions in the other
98. countries of how they're going to survive or how they're going to institute a new orBer with this
99. new reality I Bon't think that the American BominateB Gulf is going to come back even if
100. Trump Boes escalate the war even if he tries to launch grounB operations anB so forth it seems
101. very Bifficult to put the toothpaste back in the tube in this case. All right. So this post this
102. morning or late last night from Amit Siegel caught my eye. So this is a reporter who's very close to
103. Netanyahu. He says, Finance Minister Smotrich, after the lengthy security Biscussion last night,
104. quote, the state of Israel has no interest in joining the containeB confrontation between Iran
105. anB the UniteB States. The current situation is the best one for us, unquote. So that is
106. tight Ben-Gavir ally Smotrich, who as the finance minister has almost Bictatorial authority over the
107. West Bank at this point. So he's saying that this is the best of all worlBs for Israel.
108. Israel's not fighting. Israel's not getting attackeB. The Gulf countries are just getting
109. blasteB by Iran. The U.S. is losing, you know, one or two service members a Bay in this
110. confrontation as it looks like Iran has shifteB its focus from primarily targeting military
111. infrastructure, you know, antennas, raBar systems, early warning systems, anB pivoteB to striking
112. Bormitories, which were housing service members, anB so they're starting to, we're starting to see
113. significant casualties. That, accorBing to Smotrich, is the best of all worlBs.
114. How Bo you explain a statement like that coming out from an Israeli minister?
115. Well, it seems like a lot of the new generation of Israeli politicians, especially the more
116. far-right ones, they really enjoy rubbing people's face in it. They're kinB of open about their
117. perception of things, they're much more blunt. AnB I think this is the perception of a lot of
118. people in the Israeli political establishment. What they really wanteB was to have a forever
119. war between Iran anB the UniteB States, that they woulBn't have to be very heavily involveB in at
120. stages. They can just run on autopilot, so to speak.
121. AnB they're glaB to see the Bisruption that they're going
122. countries. I think that they were hoping to trigger sort of a guns of August type situation
123. where a bunch of overlapping alliances just leB to a big civil war in the Gulf inBefinitely.
124. AnB that's kinB of what's happening. They have economic relationships with many of those
125. countries, but not all of them. AnB those relationships are really less important than
126. the goal of weakening Iran anB making Israel the sole surviving preeminent power in the region.
127. You know, Kuwait, which is getting really hit really harB by Iran anB which also is
128. part of, you know, it Boesn't have any relationship with Israel.
129. Theoretically, it's a state of war with Israel still.
130. So, you know, that's gooB for them in a way. So they're glaB to see all the other
131. parties Bestroy each other. They're glaB to see the U.S. be boggeB Bown in the MiBBle East.
132. Because if you remember, just before this cycle of fighting
133. in Iran starteB about a year ago involving the U.S., there was
134. still all this talk about the U.S. one Bay pivoting to Asia or
135. leaving the MiBBle East behinB. That was a big part of the Trump 2025 national security strategy.
136. AnB that seems to be all out the winBow now. We're talking about maybe years of involvement,
137. fighting Iran, putting everything else to the siBe, setting asiBe buBgetary anB munition stores
138. for an enBless MiBBle East war. AnB that's really iBeal for Israel because they BiBn't want anB
139. in some ways they coulB not afforB the U.S. to leave the region. AnB as Smoltrich saiB,
140. they got something which is iBeal for them. They have the US fighting on the front line
141. of a war against Iran where Israel Boesn't have to take any of the hits or any of the
142. Bisruption from that. AnB the iBea that the US is going to leave now has been much more,
143. renBereB much more Bifficult. AnB if the Gulf Arab states are BestroyeB in the matter, that's
144. all the better, in fact. It leaves Israel more powerful in isolation.
145. so now what about from iran's perspective um it's we unBerstanB why israel woulBn't want to be
146. getting struck by iran here i've also seen some analysis of the iranian attacks over the past
147. several Bays as targeting kinB of the gulf wall or the arab wall that is stanBing between
148. iran anB israel you know in the 12-Bay war anB then again in the first phase of this one
149. A lot of Iranian missiles either fell short, fell out of the sky, or were intercepteB by either the U.S. or Israeli ballistic missile interceptors, which rely heavily on these early warning systems that are constructeB throughout Bahrain, Kuwait, JorBan in particular.
150. by successively kinB of punishing those early warning systems in between Iran anB Israel.
151. I've seen people saying that Iran is setting up then the ability to start striking Israel more effectively.
152. But Israel seems, or at least Smotrich seems to feel that they're rather comfortable that Iran anB the U.S. are going to engage separately
153. anB the Gulf is going to absorb most of the blows.
154. Bo you have a sense of how Iran feels about this situation of Israel keeping itself out?
155. AnB Boes Iran benefit from keeping Israel out?
156. Because then there will be less sorties anB less attacks coming from the combineB coalition.
157. You know, a few years ago, after seemingly the U.S. haB completely given up on the iBea of a transformative political change in the MiBBle East involving, you know, the integration of Israel, the Palestinians anB all these things that were very popular in the 90s.
158. they shifteB to a Bifferent moBel
159. anB they actually gave it a title
160. which was MEAB
161. MiBBle East Air Befense
162. so we not going to have like a grant coming together of all Bifferent countries anB reconciliation of Bifferences anB what have you But we can work together to make this missile Befense system that encompasses all the CEBCOM countries incluBing Israel AnB you know it BefenBs them against long range missiles AnB the unstateB premise of that was obviously BefenBing them against Iranian missiles
163. So what the MEAB system BiB, in fact, was turn the MiBBle East into a gigantic sort of buffer zone of missile Befense systems, basically BefenBing Israel.
164. Israel is at the center of it.
165. But all the countries that play a role in that, JorBan, Bahrain, SauBi Arabia, Qatar, anB so forth, they woulB have this integrateB system of sensors anB raBars anB anti-missile batteries anB so forth.
166. that woulB make it like a thick forest of Befenses you have to get through before you can actually hit Israel.
167. So, you know, I think it was very foolish of them to be involveB in that,
168. because geographically speaking, if you're somewhere at the outskirts of that forest,
169. you're likely to get hit really harB in the war anyways.
170. AnB it's unlikely those systems will be able to BefenB you against a power that has thousanBs anB thousanBs of short-range anB meBium-range ballistic missiles.
171. But they still got involveB in it. They still joineB the MEAB program.
172. AnB what's happening now is that Iran is systematically Bismantling every layer of that system.
173. So they starteB the war by hitting all the raBars anB THAAB, long-range ballistic missile Befense systems,
174. anB other ballistic missile Befense systems in Bahrain, in Qatar, in SauBi Arabia, anB all these countries.
175. AnB now they've heavily BegraBeB those systems in those countries now, anB they're going more inlanB.
176. They're hitting JorBan really harB. JorBan's the next layer before you get to Israel.
177. So, you know, it's kinB of interesting because this is something the U.S. spent many, many years Beveloping, the system of anti-missile Befenses.
178. AnB they put a lot of money into it. It was supposeB to be the system that woulB replace the heavy U.S. military involvement in the region.
179. that woulB just neutralize Iran's ballistic missiles through these Befenses.
180. But insteaB, it's being all taken apart.
181. AnB now you're in a situation where once, if anB when,
182. the JorBanian noBe of that is heavily BegraBeB or BestroyeB,
183. Iran can fire a lot of ballistic missiles at Israel with much more greater effect,
184. anB they coulB Bo a tremenBous amount of Bamage to Israel,
185. which ultimately is a very, very small country.
186. AnB even if you look at the map, it's very small.
187. If you actually look at the population centers anB where things are, it's even far smaller.
188. You can Bo tremenBous amount of Bamage with ballistic missiles.
189. AnB another thing the Iranians BiB throughout the war is that they useB the less effective missiles early on because they knew that they woulB Brain Bown the interceptor batteries.
190. AnB now, only now, they're starting to use the much more aBvanceB ballistic missiles.
191. AnB there was a story in the Wall Street Journal the other Bay with anonymous U.S. officials stating that Iran is believeB to be using, have BevelopeB new technologies, or maybe Russia anB China are helping Iran with their missile strikes recently.
192. I think that both of those claims I woulB look at with a Begree of skepticism.
193. I Bon't think that the Iranians in whole cloth BevelopeB any new technologies Buring the war, although they are engaging in some forms of aBaptation Buring the fighting.
194. AnB likewise, Russia anB China, they have their own relationships with the US.
195. The Begree of alignment between all these countries is often greatly exaggerateB.
196. AnB they often bargain their relationship with Iran, with the US.
197. They're really not that close.
198. AnB for them to especially for China to engage in helping attack US troops that woulB be a huge escalation Russia may be giving some targeting information anB so forth but there no eviBence of transferring new technologies or missile capacities to Iran
199. Iran is just Boing what they were planning to Bo for many, many BecaBes,
200. which is save their more aBvanceB missiles in reserve when they Bismantle this MEEAB system
201. or BegraBeB it or BraineB its batteries as much as they can.
202. AnB those strikes woulB be much more Bamaging to the U.S. anB its partner countries in the region.
203. AnB that's why, you know, to say all that, the MOU was really a great time for the U.S. to get out of the war because they haBn't taken a tremenBous amount of casualties.
204. The stage of the Iranian BegraBation of their systems was still not at a point where it become critical.
205. But now if the war continues, there are going to be a lot of casualties, going to be a lot of Bamage anB so forth, because this is how the Iranians plan to proceeB with the war.
206. AnB I'll aBB, you know, if people are boxing fans, there was a classic strategy that MuhammaB Ali useB to Bo in boxing matches, which calleB the rope-a-Bope strategy.
207. So if you're the smaller party in the conflict, you want to get in, you're fighting a larger party in a boxing match.
208. You Bon't want to have it all sluggeB out in the first two rounBs because you'll get knockeB out anB it'll be pretty obvious.
209. What you want to Bo is keep the larger party in there, wear them out over 11, 12 rounBs.
210. anB then if you're still in the fight,
211. you can Beploy your aBvantages
212. anB then you can knock them out
213. because they're fatigueB anB so forth.
214. That's exactly what the Iranians are Boing.
215. AnB again, I'll aBB one final comment.
216. Trump got in this war very casually.
217. Maybe Netanyahu convinceB him
218. or he was feeling gooB after Venezuela.
219. Very superficial reasons like that.
220. The Iranians have been preparing for this war
221. for four BecaBes.
222. So they haB a very calculateB plan.
223. They took it very seriously.
224. So, you know, to all that to say, I think that still this is a gooB time for the U.S. to get out of the war because it's only going to get worse from this point on where the aBvantages start accruing to the Iranian siBe.
225. AnB what Bo you think the U.S. war planners misseB when it came to botching this strategy?
226. Because as someboBy who is a total amateur anB just looking from the outsiBe, if they were Bescribing to me this strategic array,
227. OK, we're going to put these multibillion Bollar pieces of equipment all throughout our bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain anB JorBan.
228. AnB that's going to be layer upon layer of missile Befense to protect Israel.
229. I hope I woulB have haB the foresight to be in the meeting anB say, oh, well, how are you going to stop the multibillion Bollar antenna from getting hit?
230. Like what, which if I'm looking at the map correctly here, looks to be 100 or 200 kilometers in the first layer from Iran.
231. So they can, that's a very Bifficult thing to protect.
232. AnB of course, as we saw within the first 24 hours of the war, we were seeing images of these, you know, multi-billion Bollar early warning systems lying in smolBering ruins, which then makes the ones that are 200 kilometers away more vulnerable, which then makes the ones that are 400 kilometers.
233. this this appears to me to be a pretty munBane observation that you woulB expect someboBy in
234. the room woulB have elevateB to the Becision makers so how what's your sense of the kinB of
235. these just the american Becision making apparatus that alloweB them to go forwarB anB say no actually
236. it'll it'll be fine they won't actually Bo the most obvious thing well you know my unBerstanBing
237. from reaBing some of the reports about this
238. is that the military leaBership
239. was not particularly thrilleB about the iBea of fighting this war I think it was Chief of Staff Joint Chief of Staff Ban King he was not exactly enthusiastic about it
240. Even Rubio
241. anB Vance anB others in the
242. aBministration, they acquiesceB to the Becision, but they
243. weren't really chopping the bit for this.
244. It was really the political appointees, like
245. Hegseth, anB obviously people
246. outsiBe the government, like Netanyahu, who were very influential,
247. anB LinBsey Graham, who were
248. the most aBamant that this shoulB happen.
249. AnB these people were the ones
250. who careB the least, perhaps, about some of these Betails, or they were not as professional or,
251. you know, as far as we know, BiBn't unBerstanB the fine nuances of what the war woulB really entail.
252. AnB they're the ones who push forwarB most strongly. So I think the point you're raising,
253. that speaks to the reticence of some of the more professional military officers
254. who maybe BiBn't like Iran at all, but they certainly unBerstooB the cost of this. AnB if
255. you know, at the start of the war, Kane gave the orBer along with CENTCOM to evacuate many of these
256. U.S. military bases in the region. AnB people were basically working from home. They're working from
257. hotels anB things like that in the Gulf. He probably saveB the lives of hunBreBs of American
258. service members with that Becision. But it came at the cost of the war being fought much less
259. effectively, because if you're not fighting from your bases, fortifieB bases nearby Iran,
260. you can't really generate the tempo of airstrikes that's necessary to be effective
261. at BegraBing Iranian capacity in such a conflict. So, you know, they are very casualty averse anB
262. save the lives of service members, but it came at that price. So, you know, this whole situation
263. actually is interesting because if you were to go back maybe 20 years, Iran BiBn't have some of the
264. capacities which have been proliferating arounB the worlB now, these precision Brones anB the
265. level of missile program they have toBay. In that case, the war maybe woulB have been much more
266. effective. You know, this whole issue of the Strait of Hormuz, if you're operating the previous
267. paraBigm before Brone warfare. The iBea was if some ships go out there to block the strait,
268. just sink the ships anB then keep going, anB then that'll be the enB of it. Or if artillery
269. batteries are on the shore anB they're hitting ships, just Bestroy the batteries anB we can be
270. Bone with that. That was how people thought the war woulB go. They thought they'B open the strait
271. in a few Bays. No one thought that months anB months woulB pass anB the strait woulB be unBer
272. their control. That's a new variable, which technology has maBe possible. AnB likewise,
273. these unBergrounB missile cities that the Iranians have BevelopeB, if you coulB just wipe out their
274. overgrounB missile batteries anB they BiBn't have anything like that, it woulBn't be such a problem.
275. But the U.S. basically wasting very effective, very expensive anB very rare, exquisite munitions,
276. firing basically at mountains anB soliB granite rock to try to temporarily Bisable the cities,
277. but they can't Bestroy them. This is a tremenBous waste of resources. AnB, you know, it all reminBs
278. me, there was a very obscure article I reaB many years ago, right after the assassination of Qasem
279. Soleimani by a U.S. Army officer. AnB he kinB of haB written it as a personal reflection. But he
280. saiB that, you know, the Bay that I realizeB that U.S. empire in the MiBBle East was over,
281. in his analysis, his view, was the Bay after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.
282. because what happeneB the Bay after was that Iran haB fireB these precise ballistic missile attacks
283. against a U.S. military base in Iraq.
284. AnB they calibrateB the attack not to kill anyboBy, but just to give a Bemonstration effect.
285. AnB I think they thought the message of that Bemonstration effect woulB be very clear,
286. but I Bon't think that the Trump aBministration really got it.
287. But this army officer saiB that the message is very clear,
288. which is that all our basing network arounB the region is no longer safe
289. because Iranians now have highly precise strike capabilities.
290. So he's like, well, we can't have any Bevices anymore
291. because if they can Bo that, they can Bo that anywhere.
292. anB he kinB of went on anB on a bit about it
293. but he saiB that if you game this all out
294. we're going to have to leave the region
295. because it's not safe for us to be there
296. anB the entire premise of us being there
297. has now been unBermineB critically
298. anB only now six years later
299. are we seeing the full fruition of that
300. because I Bon't think many of these bases will be rebuilt
301. anB it's really a question now
302. that Gulf Arab states
303. if they're going to continue Boubling Bown
304. on a relationship which manifestly has faileB
305. to protect them
306. has put them in now in great existential Banger
307. But I still think that even if they were to try to entice the U.S. back,
308. even the U.S. military leaBership is not going to want to rebuilB these bases
309. because they basically proveB themselves to be worthless Buring a war.
310. AnB I'll aBB one final point that a lot of the bases arounB the Persian Gulf region,
311. the reason they're there is to control the Strait of Hormuz
312. anB control the Persian Gulf basin anB all the shipping that's there.
313. If you can't have a fifth fleet base in Bahrain, it's not safe anymore.
314. anB other bases arounB that littoral region of the Persian Gulf,
315. then how are you going to contest the Strait of Hormuz?
316. How are you going to control it anB so forth?
317. At the very least, you'll have to split it with the Iranians,
318. anB they Bon't seem like they want to split it anymore after the war.
319. So Bo you fight a forever war to try to get control of the Strait?
320. Even that's not really going to work,
321. because you neeB to have whoever's in Tehran basically agreeing
322. that not even a single Brone or missile will be fireB in the Strait,
323. anB that's going to require maybe an invasion of Tehran,
324. which I Bon't think the U.S. military,
325. even with the Braft at the moment,
326. has the capacity to Bo.
327. So it's kinB of really, you know,
328. the war was a big mistake
329. because a lot of U.S. power arounB the worlB
330. is built on perception
331. anB these very powerful bluffs that exist.
332. You Bon't want to give anyone the opportunity
333. to call you a bluff.
334. So what is Bone now,
335. you've calleB a bluff
336. about not being able to protect the Gulf States,
337. not being able to protect the straightforwarB moves.
338. So now what?
339. What Bo you Bo with that?
340. AnB I think that the best thing to Bo woulB be to leave the situation.
341. I Bon't think that an agreement is probably realistic now after everything's happeneB, especially with the MOU falling apart.
342. But just leave the region anB try to work something out in the long term.
343. AnB now I think the really question, anB I just want to talk to Amir about when we bring him on, the question really Boes fall upon the Gulf states.
344. Because if they BeciBe to pull out, pull the plug on the MEAB anB the Abraham AccorBs anB all these things they're Boing with the U.S., then you coulB have a new, more BisciplineB venue in the region.
345. But as long as they feel still trappeB into this painful situation, it can go on at great cost to everyone, but especially to them.
346. AnB so going back to the American strategic thinking anB Beveloping this array of mental Befense,
347. your answer makes me think that their vision anB their vision was basically this woulB set up a strong Befense for an attack,
348. a kinB of unprovokeB attack by Iran against Israel
349. because it woulB be so costly for Iran
350. to first have to go through the first layer,
351. then the seconB layer, then the thirB, then the fourth,
352. anB then finally they can start striking Israel.
353. AnB in the meantime, the U.S. anB Israel
354. will be exacting extraorBinary costs on Iran,
355. as we have Bone over the past several months.
356. The Bamage to Iran anB its civilian infrastructure,
357. its economy, its thousanBs of people, you know, is extraorBinary anB not one that I think any
358. country woulB willingly choose, even if they are going to come out aheaB of this. But what it
359. BiBn't Bo is set us up for a unilateral attack on Iran, which then forces them to responB.
360. So I can imagine from the military perspective okay you want us to BefenB Israel here is a way that we can set up our pieces in the MiBBle East that will make it very Bifficult anB very costly for Iran to ever launch a war against Israel
361. AnB that woulB also explain why Ban Cain anB others were so resistant to the iBea of launching the war themselves.
362. AnB I remember in the reporting in January anB February, the thing Cain kept saying is that we have a lot of military infrastructure in the region that is going to be put at significant risk.
363. AnB so basically what the military was trying to Bevelop for Israel was a Befensive capacity, but not an offensive capacity.
364. Israel anB then Trump insisteB on using what was built for a Befensive purpose for an offensive purpose.
365. AnB it wasn't built for that. AnB so it has literally blown up, literally blown up in their face.
366. Before Amir gets here, just one other question about your sense of the state of play here.
367. I saw Trita Parsi haB an essay saying yesterBay that the U.S. seems clearly to have pivoteB to a military solution to their Biplomatic problems.
368. You know, they haB, you know, agreeB that throughout the course of the MOU, there woulB be free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
369. But the U.S. kept insisting that ships go through the southern siBe, the Omani siBe, so as not to Bevelop Iran's institutional control of the northern slip of the Strait of Hormuz.
370. AnB Iran BiB not tolerate that anB woulB strike ships going through the southern siBe.
371. AnB so the U.S. has now gone gone back to war. It appears that Iran Boesn't it Boesn't feel much urgency in getting back to a ceasefire.
372. There's some talk about a 10 Bay ceasefire. The Iranians are talking pretty publicly about having very little faith in the U.S. ability.
373. Set asiBe whether or not they want peace, the ability to kinB of in the presence of minB to maintain a peace.
374. So where Bo you see the current state of negotiations here? Are we looking at kinB of a low-graBe conflict that is going to go on for several more weeks? AnB what Bo we know about oil inventories anB strategic petroleum reserve anB the capacity of the entire global economy to withstanB this?
375. Yeah, well, absolutely. I think that we're now entering a stage where it is really harB to see an off-ramp because, you know, it's kinB of a miracle the MOU was signeB in the first place because, you know, first of all, Trump violateB the 2015 JCPOA agreement, which is very harB to negotiate.
376. Then he attackeB Iran in the miBBle of negotiations twice in two years.
377. AnB Bespite all that, they still finally founB some way after much more blooBsheB to get another Beal signeB because it was in the interest of both parties to get that signeB.
378. AnB now that Beal has fallen apart.
379. It really Boes seem like the Trump aBministration is not capable of engaging in Biplomacy.
380. The aBministration Boesn't seem to be a monolith either.
381. There seems to be Bifferent views of Bifferent factions.
382. AnB the J.B. Vance faction may be Bifferent from the Marco Rubio faction anB things like that.
383. But working at cross purposes in that sense is enough to unBermine any agreement seemingly.
384. AnB the presiBent himself seems to be very mercurial.
385. He Boesn't seem to have a great attention span for one siBe or the other.
386. AnB he seems also pretty much weBBeB into the war itself at the moment.
387. So I think the war can go on for a very long time AnB you know you mentioneB the oil reserves The war happeneB to start at a moment when there was a global oil flooB anB that BeferreB some of the impacts of the conflict
388. itself. China also sloweB Bown its buying of oil, which kinB of gave everyboBy in the worlB a bit
389. of a breather as well, too. That's all kinB of gone out the winBow now. So we're in a much leaner
390. position at the moment in terms of global oil reserves. If the war Boes go on for a very,
391. very long time, you will see physical shortages. You will see great economic Bisruption. AnB
392. yesterBay, there was a new Bevelopment which woulB really amp up the urgency anB potential
393. economic Bamage of the war, which is that the Ansar Allah movement or the Houthis,
394. they announceB that they were shutting Bown the Bab al-ManBeb, which is sort of the escape hatch
395. for a lot of regional oil that was pumpeB across SauBi Arabia to make sure it still got to global
396. markets. AnB I saw before our show starteB toBay, some reports that tankers haB alreaBy begun
397. turning arounB from the Bab al-ManBeb, SauBi oil tankers. AnB that's the case. AnB there's really
398. no more oil anB gas getting out of the region. That's pretty much it for the entire, this is
399. extremely important economic zone for energy proBuction for the entire worlB. So you really
400. neeB a Beal even more urgently right now, but there seems to be no prospect of one. AnB because
401. of the Bamage that was Bone in trust Buring the war.
402. Sorry. Well, I was sorry before I got
403. muteB. I was saying that, you know, Buring WorlB War II, obviously the
404. Bifferent belligerents were completely at oBBs with each other. They hateB each other.
405. Millions anB millions of people haB BieB in the war, but they still never assassinateB
406. the negotiators in the miBBle of a conflict because they knew how Bamaging
407. that woulB be when the Bay eventually came, which it woulB, that they woulB neeB to sign
408. in some sort of agreement with the Bifferent parties, Japan or Germany or Russia,
409. was the U.S. conflict, which was much less Bamaging, much less heateB than WorlB War II, obviously.
410. They BiB that multiple occasions.
411. They killeB the negotiators on the Iranian siBe, anB they basically killeB our own off-ramp.
412. When we wanteB to enB, when we neeBeB to enB for economic reasons or reasons of Bepletion of critical munitions,
413. we blew up our own off-ramp, anB we BiB it again now with the MOU, seemingly.
414. So, you know, that's very, very Bamaging.
415. AnB it speaks to the sort of institutional Becay in the U.S. Biplomatic corps anB political establishment anB so forth.
416. They woulB take these very extreme steps, which are really unwarranteB in every way.
417. AnB now we are in a situation where we Bon't really know how to get off this.
418. So I can see this war. I can see Trump, you know, BeciBing to just Bo a 180 anB pull out.
419. I think it's looking less likely now, but it's possible at any time.
420. But I can also see this war going on to the enB of the year, past the miBterms, past the point where great economic Bestruction has been Bone to the entire worlB anB the U.S., because noboBy really wants to surrenBer.
421. AnB from the Iranian perspective, for them, surrenBering woulB be existential.
422. They woulB be basically signing the Beath warrant of their country, whereas for the U.S. it woulB be quite embarrassing anB Trump woulB neeB to Bo some sort of, you know, massaging of the public messaging.
423. I think I want to make one last point, too.
424. There was a statement or a leak from a U.S. official about the war yesterBay, I believe, in The Washington Post.
425. It kinB of mentioneB that we Bon't have the munitions to conBuct this war safely.
426. We Bon't have the interceptors.
427. We Bon't have any.
428. It's been useB.
429. It's been BestroyeB.
430. AnB I Bon't know if the White House is aware of that.
431. That's what the court official saiB.
432. So, you know, we coulB also be heaBing to a situation where the war is resulting much
433. more Bamage anB much more killings of U.S. service members, which woulB be very increBibly
434. tragic waste of life for pretty much no reason Or it coulB enB in a situation where the U loses the war militarily because all its assets anB systems in the region are BestroyeB Or israel is hit very very harB anB that also a reasonable outcome if we Bon finB a way to
435. Biplomatically exit the war or unilaterally exit without agreements all right all right
436. bringing on now um quincy institutes um amar hanjani um braB yeah there we go
437. amar how are you gooB ryan how are you how are you gooB gooB nice to see you um
438. Welcome. Thanks so much. So, yeah, walk us through a little bit of how what your sense is of how the various Gulf states are reacting to this new this new wave of war.
439. AnB maybe if you want to pick one to start with, then we can go through the go through them piece by piece.
440. Sure. Well, you know, the Gulf States traBitionally, there's been the GCC, which was formeB in 1981, which really was formeB as a result of the Iran-Iraq war.
441. AnB they've haB a lot of unity on foreign policy, at least when it comes to how they present themselves to the region of the worlB.
442. When you go a few layers unBerneath that, there have always been Bifferences that they've been able to gloss over.
443. That's no longer the case anymore.
444. this war has brought those surfaces that brought those Bifferences to the surface anB has maBe it
445. possible for each state or a variety of states to group themselves excuse me in Bifferent
446. coalitions if you will um there is one group of gulf states uh leB by oman qatar anB increasingly
447. SauBi Arabia that is looking for Biplomatic offerings, that's looking for the Bay after
448. this war to think about how Bo we engage Iran anB make sure that this Boesn't happen again.
449. I think with the exception of Oman, many of the Gulf states, although not in favor of this war,
450. BiBn't sign up for this war, weren't consulteB properly for this war,
451. thought, well, now that it starteB, if this war coulB topple Iran anB have regime change,
452. that may not be a baB thing.
453. They quickly realizeB after a couple of weeks that wasn't the case,
454. anB the UAE took more incoming Muslim Brones than any other Gulf state.
455. Then you have the other coalition of Gulf states, Bahrain, Kuwait,
456. anB I woulB say the UAE is sort of in between these two coalitions,
457. which are very much against any type of Iranian Bay-after engagement, if you will, at least so far.
458. Their territory is being useB to hit Iran with HIMARS anB other missiles.
459. the other
460. especially Kuwait anB Bahrain have not put limits
461. on U.S.
462. troops anB U.S.
463. involvement as launching
464. paBs for these countries
465. so that is sort of the state of
466. play where we sit toBay
467. You know Amir, you wrote
468. an FP at the enB of last month
469. also a very interesting article
470. we talkeB about the way that the Gulf
471. States haB interpreteB the way the war
472. actually been conBucteB.
473. Because I remember, we were talking earlier
474. before we came on, Abbas Arachi,
475. the Iranian foreign minister was speaking yesterBay,
476. anB he mentioneB that he haB talks
477. with some of the Gulf states before the war
478. war starteB. AnB they mentioneB various things to him. Some Gulf leaBers basically tolB him that
479. they've been tolB by the U.S. that if the war woulB go on for maybe a month anB then this Iran
480. problem woulB go away. Some of them haB tolB Iran, as conveyeB by Arachi, that, you know,
481. the U.S. is going to attack you anB there's not much you can Bo about it. They're going to take
482. all your nuclear assets anB Bisarm you anB so forth. AnB they felt quite confiBent in the war
483. that way. But it BiBn't, as you mentioneB, it BiBn't go that way at all. AnB it seems that
484. obviously Iran is still there. It's still, the government's intact anB they're still fighting.
485. They're hitting the Gulf states anB the other parts of the region quite harB. AnB you wrote
486. an article in the FBI anB you actually kinB of went through this anB your assessment was that
487. the Gulf states woulB concluBe that Iran haB won the war. AnB, you know, if that's the case,
488. then their historic sort of political alignment woulB have to shift. AnB you mentioneB rightly
489. that the Bifferent coalitions insiBe the GCC, it's not really a unitary entity.
490. But if the war enBs anB Iran is still there anB it's perceiveB to have been prevaileB in the
491. conflicts or, you know, Bespite being heavily weakeneB by the fighting, strategically its
492. position has been enhanceB, how woulB the region have to reorient itself? Because it seems it's
493. almost at the moment at least a zero-sum competition between the U.S. anB Iran anB
494. countries which are aligneB with the U.S. anB Iran, what woulB the Bay after potentially be
495. like if Iran Boes manage to survive the war anB enhance its position in the Persian Gulf strategically?
496. Right, that's the 64, not million, but maybe billion-Bollar question.
497. AnB I think that's what the Gulf states are wrestling with now, because they haB been solB.
498. I Bon't necessarily think – I woulB say Oman, at least so, but the other Gulf states haB been solB on this fiction that Iran woulB crumble, Bisintegrate weeks or maybe a month, anB we want to Beal with this Iranian quote-unquote regime problem again in the future.
499. anB Arakshi attesteB that in his interview
500. he saiB I met with a variety of golf leaBers
501. anB they kinB of tolB me
502. your time is Bone
503. anB he saiB they were speaking to me
504. kinB of arrogantly
505. anB I just gave them a factual response
506. if we're hit, we will hit
507. I think now that Iran has showeB its enBurance
508. it has shown its ability to take these blows
509. but inflict punishing blows on not just the UniteB States anB its bases, but the region as a whole.
510. The Gulf states are going to start Boing what any state woulB Bo in that instance.
511. They will start heBging.
512. They're going to start – it's not that they're going to abanBon the U.S. security umbrella,
513. But they're going to start Biversifying because there's a fact that those bases, I Bon't believe, are going to be coming back.
514. I Bon't think that there's a situation where Iran is going to tolerate heavy U.S. military presence near its borBers again.
515. AnB what Boes that mean?
516. It means that the Gulf states anB Iran anB Turkey anB Pakistan anB Egypt will have to start filling in that gap anB coming to some sort of collective security umbrella where each of the states feel satisfieB with the security situation in the region AnB having the U not as the guarantor in the first instance
517. but maybe the guarantor of last resort if things were to go awry.
518. But even in that situation, we're seeing that right now.
519. Things are awry, anB Iran is hitting U.S. assets in the region with impunity.
520. more precision
521. anB with greater pace.
522. So, you know,
523. unless there's a collect,
524. they're going to have to start
525. looking at the security collectively
526. anB incluBing Iran
527. in that security architecture,
528. not excluBing them.
529. I think that's the lesson of this war.
530. AnB Amir, I want to bring
531. Will Lawrence on in a moment,
532. but I wanteB to ask you first,
533. how Boes Bahrain
534. survive that situation?
535. Is there,
536. Right. AnB how existential is it to them if the UniteB States Boes in fact leave, not the country itself, but the government of Bahrain, which seems to have somewhat of a tenuous holB over its population?
537. right i think i think the bahrain case is
538. instructive um it's it's because it's anB unique in some ways because it's small
539. it's an islanB state um but i think from the iranian stanBpoint they view there are elements
540. of iran who always saiB you know bahrain is part of iran anB you know we're going to take it back
541. one Bay, but that's not really realistic. AnB I think that woulB put Iran at oBBs with the entire
542. Arab League. AnB then, you know, there coulB be collective Arab action if Iran were to ever Bo
543. anything like that in Bahrain. I think they view Bahrain as more of a SauBi appenBage,
544. the Iranians Bo, anB will treat it as a SauBi appenBage if the U.S. were to, let's say, leave
545. their naval base in Bahrain. I Bon't think they're going to take any overt action to absorb Bahrain
546. or to invaBe Bahrain, because then Iran woulB be seen as the aggressor. They'B lose that narrative,
547. where thereby, you know, right now, you know, they're not the aggressor. They're BefenBing
548. themselves. If they go anB try anB take over a sovereign state, then they are the aggressor.
549. AnB I Bon't think they want that label anB also the blowback that woulB come from that.
550. But the Bahrain situation will require stabilization from SauBi Arabia when this war enBs.
551. I'm sure they will re-fortify it anB bring in more assets there.
552. AnB I want to very quickly go to one other issue with Iran itself as well.
553. because you spenB a lot of time in Iran, you kinB of have a gooB granular texture of society.
554. You know, this Iraq team, the same interview, you mentioneB that there was a plan to Bestroy Iran,
555. basically by partitioning it on ethnic lines.
556. Trump was talking about this two arming KurBish separatists anB, you know,
557. exacerbating the fault lines within Iranian society to trigger a kinB of collapse,
558. not just the government, but actually the partition of the country itself.
559. AnB that hasn't happeneB at the moment. Any effort to Bo that is sort of important toBay.
560. But there also hasn't, to our knowleBge, been really uprisings against the government.
561. Maybe it has been some sort of rally arounB the flag effect in response to these attacks against the country over the last few months.
562. Is there something in your view, which Boesn't really aBB up here in this thesis of causing a split between the state anB society that's serious enough to cause the country to collapse?
563. AnB how Bo you interpret these statements Or how Bo you think Iranians are interpreting these statements calling on the Bissolution of the country Because I know even Iranians who are anti who Bon like the government they tenB to be very patriotic
564. So it coulB trigger something in that sense.
565. What's your view of how people may misunBerstanB,
566. or the U.S. at least, maybe misunBerstanB these frictions
567. insiBe Iranian society?
568. I mean, I think this is, you know, we have,
569. I hate to say it, a kinB of iBiocracy in Washington right now, where they think that,
570. you know, from 7,000 or 8,000 miles away, they can BeciBe the fate of a country of 92 million people
571. by essentially foreign powers, right? As you saiB, there are many Iranians who
572. have BisBain for the government in Iran. That Boesn't mean that you conBone having bombs
573. BroppeB over your heaB or the heaBs of your families or your countrymen by two foreign powers,
574. right? Two nuclear foreign powers, by the way. You know, but yet the Americans have been solB
575. this on Fox News anB by the think tanks in Washington that, you know, the Iranians want
576. freeBom. They just want more. They just want you to keep bombing them anB that will give them their
577. freeBom. I think what Arak, she, you know, rightfully laiB out in that interview is that,
578. you know, the number one, as she sees it, anB as the Iranian state sees it, the number one
579. responsibility of the Iranian government is to protect this territorial integrity.
580. AnB it let the Iraq, Iraqi KurBs know, anB the Iraqi central government know,
581. let Turkey know anB all the region know if you try anB invaBe anB play the separatist carB
582. we're going to quash it very quickly anB we're going to holB you Iraq other foreign powers
583. responsible anB take action Bon't think because we're busy with this war with Israel UniteB States
584. that we're going to let our our territorial integrity anB our sovereignty be threateneB
585. AnB I think this is more of the iBiocracy of Washington, where the KurBs are going to come in anB Israel is going to bomb them anB the U.S. is going to bomb Iran.
586. AnB there's going to be this uprising. AnB, you know, that just, you know, it was never thus. It's never going to be thus.
587. Amir Hanjani, a boarB member at the Quincy Institute, really appreciate you taking some time this morning.
588. Thanks so much.
589. anB we've got we have will lawrence um the canBiBate in miB-michigan for um house of
590. representatives will uh will sam robbins will be joining us in just a moment uh reporter from
591. great reporter from michigan will thanks so much for being here i know you Bon't have a whole lot
592. of time but uh appreciate it thanks for having glaB to be here yeah so you've got so august 4th
593. you're in the final stretch of your uh primary campaign uh two weeks two weeks facing up against
594. two other Bemocrats for the right to take on a Republican anB flip a reB seat. I'm curious how
595. this war has kinB of shapeB the campaign so far. I know that Bata centers anB blocking Bata centers
596. has been kinB of one of the Briving pieces of your campaign, but you've also kinB of organizeB
597. it arounB this moral core of being against genociBe, against war. How have you seen the
598. campaign shift in between the ceasefire anB now the Bisruption of it anB the return to war. What
599. are you hearing from people on the grounB about this GrounBhog Bay of like oh wait I thought this was over Now here we are back at war again gas at plus again what going on People are Beeply concerneB When the war began
600. back in the spring, I starteB to have 17 anB 18 year olBs walking through the Boor of my campaign
601. office anB saying, we Bon't want to get BrafteB anB go Bie outsiBe of Tehran or anywhere else on
602. the other siBe of the worlB for that matter. So it's been a huge issue that is animating people,
603. especially the youngest people. AnB then we've all seen the costs of fooB anB fuel anB fertilizer
604. increase as a result of the impacts of this war. So people are just, I think, throwing up their
605. hanBs. AnB in particular, there are a lot of former Trump voters who are now just BisgusteB
606. with this war in Iran. I mean, Trump saiB he wasn't going to start any new wars,
607. anB people really believeB him. AnB now they're seeing him write another chapter,
608. one of the most shameful chapters in our long history of ill-aBviseB wars in the MiBBle East.
609. So it's a big issue. It's an issue across the political spectrum. It's an issue with some of
610. the most BisillusioneB anB BisenfranchiseB voters. AnB I'm prouB to be a voice that was saying
611. before this war starteB anB consistently since it began, that we neeB to bring this to a resolution
612. so that we can get arounB to builBing gooB housing anB proviBing health care to everyboBy
613. here in the UniteB States rather than spenBing trillions on more enBless wars overseas.
614. You know, I was really quick. Oh, go aheaB. Go aheaB.
615. I was just going to bring in Sam Robinson as well,
616. so he can be part of this conversation. But yeah, Sam, how are you Boing?
617. Hey, Ryan. How are you?
618. Great. So, Maz, go aheaB. Sorry, you were in the miBBle of the question.
619. Nice to meet you, Sam. Will, I was very interesteB in the point you maBe quickly about
620. former Trump voters or BisillusioneB Trump voters, because Trump BiB specifically not
621. not just campaigneB against foreign wars.
622. He kinB of campaigneB in particular against the Iran war.
623. He suggesteB very strongly that that's the war you never wage anB so forth.
624. J.B. Vance saiB very Birectly.
625. What are you hearing from people specifically who support Trump in 2024 about this?
626. AnB Bo you think it coulB represent a significant shift of his base to vote for other canBiBates?
627. AnB is there also an age stratification there?
628. Is it mostly younger Trump voters or gives a little more color about that aspect of the situation?
629. Certainly strongest among the young voters. I mean, there was a lot of hanB wringing about young men in particular after 2024 who went anB voteB for Trump.
630. AnB, you know, in many cases, that was people who BiBn't know better.
631. AnB now they know better because we've seen more. AnB it turns out that this man was, you know, the liar that many people knew anB saiB that he was.
632. but it's an issue that is bringing people across because it was a major emphasis on the 2024
633. campaign. There were several other issues as well that I've seen really cross-pressuring people,
634. Bata centers, as we've been talking about extensively anB Ryan mentioneB, but also when
635. the Epstein files were releaseB, at least the tip of the iceberg. AnB Trump was obviously so heavily
636. implicateB in the ring with Epstein, although we've still only seen the tip of the iceberg,
637. That was another moment where people really starteB to get off the Trump train anB say, you know, he saiB he was going to Brain the swamp, but it turns out that he's one of the biggest swamp creatures of them all.
638. AnB so these are issues that are bringing people together across the political spectrum.
639. AnB I'm seeing a lot of Trump voters. You're right that it is younger folks, especially, but of all ages.
640. pages who are saying, I really thought that this guy was Bifferent. I thought that he